The 2025 Australian Federal Election is shaping up to be one of the most critical elections in recent history, and marginal seats will be the battlegrounds where the future of the country is decided. Marginal seats—those held by a slim majority—often determine which party forms government, making them key areas of focus for political strategists, candidates, and voters alike.
In this article, we’ll explore the top 10 marginal seats to watch in the 2025 election, their significance, and how they could impact the balance of power in Parliament.
What Are Marginal Seats?
A marginal seat is an electorate where the winning candidate secured victory with a small percentage margin, typically less than 6%. These seats are highly competitive and often swing between major parties or even to independents.
Why marginal seats matter:
- Power shifts: These seats often tip the scales in tight elections.
- Campaign focus: Parties allocate significant resources to win these electorates.
- Voter influence: Marginal seats give voters greater leverage in shaping national policy.
The Top 10 Marginal Seats to Watch
1. Brisbane (QLD)
Margin: 1.6% (Labor)
The inner-city electorate of Brisbane has become a key battleground, with increasing support for progressive policies. The Greens pose a strong challenge, particularly on climate change and housing affordability.
Key Issues:
- Urban development and housing.
- Climate action and renewable energy.
(Learn more: AEC Brisbane Profile)
2. Bass (TAS)
Margin: 0.4% (Liberal)
A perennial marginal seat, Bass in northern Tasmania has changed hands between Labor and Liberal in recent elections. The electorate’s diverse demographic makes it unpredictable.
Key Issues:
- Healthcare access.
- Regional economic development.
3. Gilmore (NSW)
Margin: 2.7% (Labor)
Located on the NSW South Coast, Gilmore is a highly contested seat with strong local issues influencing voters. The Liberal Party is expected to prioritize regaining this seat.
Key Issues:
- Disaster recovery from floods and bushfires.
- Tourism and small business support.
4. Chisholm (VIC)
Margin: 0.5% (Labor)
One of Victoria’s most multicultural electorates, Chisholm is often seen as a bellwether seat. It was held by the Coalition for years before Labor narrowly won it in 2022.
Key Issues:
- Multicultural community services.
- Public transport and infrastructure.
5. Macnamara (VIC)
Margin: 2.0% (Labor)
Located in inner Melbourne, Macnamara has seen rising support for the Greens, making it a three-cornered contest. Labor’s slim majority is at risk.
Key Issues:
- Housing affordability.
- Progressive climate policies.
6. Boothby (SA)
Margin: 3.0% (Labor)
The once-safe Liberal seat of Boothby flipped to Labor in 2022, but it remains marginal. This Adelaide-based electorate will be a key focus for both parties.
Key Issues:
- Health services.
- Local infrastructure projects.
7. Ryan (QLD)
Margin: 1.8% (Greens)
Ryan, a suburban Brisbane seat, shocked many when the Greens won it in 2022. The seat will test whether the Greens can maintain their growing influence in Queensland.
Key Issues:
- Climate change and environmental policies.
- Urban green spaces.
8. Wentworth (NSW)
Margin: 3.5% (Independent)
The affluent Sydney seat of Wentworth is held by a Teal Independent. The Coalition is eager to reclaim it, but climate-focused voters remain a challenge.
Key Issues:
- Climate action.
- Economic policy and taxation.
9. Lingiari (NT)
Margin: 4.1% (Labor)
Lingiari spans most of the Northern Territory, including remote Indigenous communities. With a significant focus on regional and Indigenous issues, this seat is always closely watched.
Key Issues:
- Indigenous Voice to Parliament.
- Remote healthcare and education.
10. Dickson (QLD)
Margin: 4.6% (Liberal)
Opposition leader Peter Dutton holds Dickson, making it a critical seat for the Coalition. Losing Dickson would be a massive blow to their leadership.
Key Issues:
- National security.
- Cost of living pressures.
Why These Seats Matter
1. Shifting Power Dynamics
Marginal seats are often where governments are won or lost. In a tight election, even a handful of seat changes can determine the Prime Minister.
2. Focus of Campaigns
Major parties will pour significant resources into these electorates, from door-knocking campaigns to targeted advertising.
3. Rise of Independents
The success of Teal Independents and Greens in 2022 shows that voters in marginal seats are open to alternatives beyond the major parties.
(Learn about political trends: The Conversation)
How to Track Marginal Seats
Stay Updated with Polling
Regular polling provides insights into voter trends in marginal seats. Trusted sources include:
Follow Local Issues
Local issues often decide marginal seats. Stay informed through regional news outlets and candidate forums.
(Find your local electorate: AEC Website)
What to Expect in 2025
Intense Campaigning
Marginal seats will see significant campaign activity, including visits from party leaders, debates, and funding announcements.
Close Results
With many seats decided by razor-thin margins, expect recounts and extended vote counting in key electorates.
Conclusion: The Marginal Seats to Watch
The 2025 Australian Election will hinge on the outcomes in marginal seats like Brisbane, Bass, and Wentworth. These electorates not only reflect Australia’s diverse political landscape but also highlight the issues that matter most to voters.
What are your thoughts on the 2025 election battlegrounds? Share your opinions in the comments or join the conversation on social media. And if you’re in a marginal seat, remember—your vote could decide the next government.
External Resources
See Also: Understanding the New Electoral Boundaries for the 2025 Election
